Technical Appendix · Companies, Equities
V Technical Appendix: The model's annual schedules
Supporting material for V Deep Dive: A great network, and a price that already assumes it stays one; it is not a separate research thesis.
The detailed schedules and method behind Blockhaven's V Deep Dive (3/5 BALANCED at the November 2, 2026 close of $425.51): the model, scenarios, equity bridge, discount rate and sensitivities, with evidence through November 7, 2026.
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- Blockhaven Research
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- 9 min read
The V research family (page counts are those of the approved PDF editions, which this site does not host):
- Deep Dive: A great network, and a price that already assumes it stays one (50 pages). Public preview; the Deep Dive page says how to read the full report.
- Research Note: Priced as if the network cannot be dented (8 pages).
- Technical Appendix: The model's annual schedules (8 pages).
- Learning Companion: How to read the Visa research (14 pages).
The three conditional cases of the Visa model, year by year, in $ millions with fiscal years ending 09-30. Operating income is on the owner basis: the company's adjusted cost base plus a recurring uncovered legal cost.
Basis
Price basis $425.51 (11-02-2026 close). Cost of capital 9.06% (cost of equity 9.19%, debt weight of 2.71%). As-converted class A shares rolled to 11-02-2026: 1,863.7 million. FY2027 below is the full fiscal year; 8.77% of it (10-01-2026 to 11-01-2026) is treated as earned before the price session and added to cash.
The Blockhaven Rating of 3 of 5, BALANCED, and the argument for it are in the Deep Dive; this appendix shows the arithmetic. The schedules start from fiscal 2026 results for the year ended 09-30-2026, whose net revenue, operating expenses, net income and earnings per share agree with the annual report filed 11-05-2026, and use evidence gathered through 11-09-2026; the latest settled close is the only item added after 11-07-2026. The values are those of the valuation date, 11-02-2026; the dated comparison with the latest settled close follows. Dated events after the price date, beginning with the dividend record date of 11-10-2026, are discussed in the Deep Dive.
Since the valuation date
| Item | Valuation close, 11-02-2026 | Latest settled close, 11-09-2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Price per share | $425.51 | $422.16 |
| Downside case ($237.26) against the close | 44.2% below | 43.8% below |
| Reference case ($365.04) against the close | 14.2% below | 13.5% below |
| Upside case ($462.33) against the close | 8.7% above | 9.5% above |
| Cost of capital at which the reference matches the close | 8.34% | 8.38% |
| Ten-year Treasury par yield | 4.91% | 4.86% (11-06-2026) |
The case values are the values of the valuation date, 11-02-2026, in both columns; they are not rolled forward and the schedules that follow are unchanged. The model's risk-free rate is the 11-02-2026 yield. The latest settled close is the November 9, 2026 regular-session closing price, not a live quote; the Treasury table ends at 11-06-2026.
Reference scenario
From net revenue to operating income on the owner basis, year by year.
| Fiscal year | Net revenue | Growth, % | Adjusted operating cost | Uncovered legal cost | Operating income | Margin, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | 51,159 | 11.5 | 16,627 | 512 | 34,021 | 66.5 |
| FY2028 | 56,512 | 10.5 | 18,253 | 565 | 37,693 | 66.7 |
| FY2029 | 61,811 | 9.4 | 19,779 | 618 | 41,413 | 67.0 |
| FY2030 | 67,086 | 8.5 | 21,333 | 671 | 45,082 | 67.2 |
| FY2031 | 72,714 | 8.4 | 22,905 | 727 | 49,082 | 67.5 |
From after-tax operating income to free cash flow to the firm, for the same years.
| Fiscal year | After-tax operating income | Depreciation and amortization | Capital expenditure | Working-capital investment | Free cash flow to the firm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | 27,727 | 1,330 | 1,842 | 53 | 27,163 |
| FY2028 | 30,720 | 1,554 | 2,034 | 54 | 30,186 |
| FY2029 | 33,752 | 1,793 | 2,225 | 53 | 33,266 |
| FY2030 | 36,742 | 2,046 | 2,415 | 53 | 36,320 |
| FY2031 | 40,002 | 2,327 | 2,618 | 56 | 39,655 |
Free cash flow earned before the price session 2,381; present value of the remaining free cash flow 131,615; terminal value 815,378 at terminal growth of 4.0%, present value 556,376 (80.9% of enterprise value); enterprise value 687,992; equity 680,324; $365.04 per share. Exit lens at 24 times fiscal 2031 earnings: $406.27 per share.
Downside scenario
From net revenue to operating income on the owner basis, year by year.
| Fiscal year | Net revenue | Growth, % | Adjusted operating cost | Uncovered legal cost | Operating income | Margin, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | 48,830 | 6.4 | 16,114 | 977 | 31,739 | 65.0 |
| FY2028 | 51,477 | 5.4 | 17,245 | 6,030 | 28,203 | 54.8 |
| FY2029 | 53,930 | 4.8 | 18,336 | 1,079 | 34,515 | 64.0 |
| FY2030 | 56,100 | 4.0 | 19,074 | 1,122 | 35,904 | 64.0 |
| FY2031 | 58,442 | 4.2 | 19,870 | 1,169 | 37,403 | 64.0 |
From after-tax operating income to free cash flow to the firm, for the same years.
| Fiscal year | After-tax operating income | Depreciation and amortization | Capital expenditure | Working-capital investment | Free cash flow to the firm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | 25,550 | 1,270 | 1,856 | 29 | 24,935 |
| FY2028 | 22,703 | 1,416 | 1,956 | 26 | 22,136 |
| FY2029 | 27,785 | 1,564 | 2,049 | 25 | 27,275 |
| FY2030 | 28,903 | 1,711 | 2,132 | 22 | 28,460 |
| FY2031 | 30,109 | 1,870 | 2,221 | 23 | 29,735 |
Free cash flow earned before the price session 2,186; present value of the remaining free cash flow 105,059; terminal value 505,578 at terminal growth of 3.0%, present value 344,983 (76.7% of enterprise value); enterprise value 450,042; equity 442,180; $237.26 per share. Exit lens at 17 times fiscal 2031 earnings: $237.30 per share.
Upside scenario
From net revenue to operating income on the owner basis, year by year.
| Fiscal year | Net revenue | Growth, % | Adjusted operating cost | Uncovered legal cost | Operating income | Margin, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | 52,883 | 15.2 | 16,922 | 317 | 35,643 | 67.4 |
| FY2028 | 59,832 | 13.1 | 18,847 | 359 | 40,626 | 67.9 |
| FY2029 | 66,854 | 11.7 | 20,725 | 401 | 45,728 | 68.4 |
| FY2030 | 73,982 | 10.7 | 22,565 | 444 | 50,974 | 68.9 |
| FY2031 | 81,734 | 10.5 | 24,520 | 490 | 56,724 | 69.4 |
From after-tax operating income to free cash flow to the firm, for the same years.
| Fiscal year | After-tax operating income | Depreciation and amortization | Capital expenditure | Working-capital investment | Free cash flow to the firm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | 29,227 | 1,375 | 1,851 | 70 | 28,681 |
| FY2028 | 33,313 | 1,645 | 2,094 | 69 | 32,795 |
| FY2029 | 37,497 | 1,939 | 2,340 | 70 | 37,026 |
| FY2030 | 41,798 | 2,256 | 2,589 | 71 | 41,394 |
| FY2031 | 46,513 | 2,615 | 2,861 | 78 | 46,191 |
Free cash flow earned before the price session 2,515; present value of the remaining free cash flow 146,543; terminal value 1,059,025 at terminal growth of 4.5%, present value 722,630 (83.1% of enterprise value); enterprise value 869,173; equity 861,639; $462.33 per share. Exit lens at 30 times fiscal 2031 earnings: $564.73 per share.
Drivers of the three cases
The assumptions behind the schedules above, year by year for fiscal 2027 to 2031 where a driver changes; the Deep Dive sets out the evidence for each in 'How the forecast works'.
| Driver, fiscal 2027 to 2031 | Downside | Reference | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal payments volume growth, drives service revenue | 6.5, 5.5, 5.0, 4.5, 4.5 | 8.5, 8.0, 7.5, 7.0, 7.0 | 9.5, 9.0, 8.5, 8.0, 8.0 |
| Service revenue yield change, points a year | 0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 | 1.5, 1.5, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 | 2.0, 2.0, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5 |
| Processed transaction growth, drives data processing revenue | 7.0, 6.0, 5.0, 4.5, 4.0 | 9.0, 8.5, 8.0, 7.5, 7.0 | 10.0, 9.5, 9.0, 8.5, 8.0 |
| Data processing yield change, points a year | 2.0, 1.0, 0.5, 0.0, 0.0 | 4.0, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 2.0 | 6.0, 4.0, 3.5, 3.0, 3.0 |
| Cross-border volume growth, drives international revenue | 7.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.5, 5.0 | 10.0, 9.0, 8.5, 8.0, 7.5 | 12.0, 11.0, 10.0, 9.0, 9.0 |
| International revenue yield change, points a year | -2.0, -1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 | -1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 | 0.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5 |
| Other revenue growth | 10.0, 8.0, 6.0, 5.0, 5.0 | 20.0, 15.0, 12.0, 10.0, 10.0 | 30.0, 20.0, 15.0, 12.0, 12.0 |
| Client incentives, % of gross revenue | 29.3, 29.8, 30.3, 30.8, 31.0 | 28.8, 29.0, 29.2, 29.4, 29.5 | 28.5, 28.5, 28.5, 28.5, 28.5 |
| Adjusted operating cost, % of net revenue | 33.0, 33.5, 34.0, 34.0, 34.0 | 32.5, 32.3, 32.0, 31.8, 31.5 | 32.0, 31.5, 31.0, 30.5, 30.0 |
| Recurring uncovered legal cost, % of net revenue | 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0 | 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 | 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6 |
| Tax on operating income | 19.5, 19.5, 19.5, 19.5, 19.5 | 18.5, 18.5, 18.5, 18.5, 18.5 | 18.0, 18.0, 18.0, 18.0, 18.0 |
| Depreciation, % of net revenue | 2.6, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.2 | 2.6, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.2 | 2.6, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.2 |
| Capital expenditure, % of net revenue | 3.8, 3.8, 3.8, 3.8, 3.8 | 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6 | 3.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5 |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| One-off legal charge in fiscal 2028 ($ millions) | 5,000 | 0 | 0 |
Terminal economics, reference case
The last explicit year beside the first terminal year, which is what the capitalization formula assumes; the Deep Dive discusses it in 'Terminal economics'.
| Reference case | Fiscal 2031, last explicit year | Fiscal 2032, first terminal year |
|---|---|---|
| Net revenue, $ billions | 72.7 | 75.6 |
| Net revenue growth | 8.4% | 4.0% |
| After-tax operating income, $ billions | 40.0 | 41.6 |
| Capital expenditure, $ billions | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Depreciation and amortization, $ billions | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Free cash flow to the firm, $ billions | 39.7 | 41.2 |
| Free cash flow as a share of after-tax operating income | 99.1% | 99.1% |
| Depreciation as a share of capital expenditure | 88.9% | 88.9% |
| Reinvestment, share of after-tax operating income | 0.87% | 0.87% |
| Operating margin, owner basis | 67.5% | 67.5% |
The reference case of our model, a conditional path and not a forecast. The first terminal year is the fiscal 2031 amounts grown at the terminal rate with fiscal 2031 ratios held, which is what the capitalization formula assumes. Our calculations.
Assumptions the independent challenge tested
Each assumption moved one at a time to the challenge's low and high settings; the Deep Dive discusses every row in 'Every assumption the independent challenge tested'.
| Assumption | Base | Low | High | Per-share effect, low setting | Per-share effect, high setting | Disposition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Cost of capital (WACC) | 9.06% | 8.21% | 9.76% | +$73.06 | -$43.56 | Disagree, material: shown as a sensitivity |
| 2. Terminal growth after fiscal 2031 | 4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | -$26.91 | +$32.81 | Agree: the evidence centers here |
| 3. Net revenue growth, fiscal 2032 to 2036, before terminal | 4% | 3% | 5.76% | -$12.28 | +$23.67 | Disagree, material: shown as a sensitivity |
| 4. Terminal reinvestment, share of fiscal 2031 after-tax operating income | 0.87% | 0% | 7.08% | +$2.50 | -$17.88 | Agree: the evidence centers here |
| 5. Service and data processing yield terms, points a year | 1.95 | 0.4 | 2.8 | -$16.86 | +$9.94 | Agree: the evidence centers here |
| 6. Client incentive ratio in fiscal 2031, share of gross revenue | 29.5% | 28.52% | 30.46% | +$4.62 | -$4.56 | Disagree, immaterial |
| 7. Recurring uncovered legal cost, share of net revenue | 1% | 0.5% | 2% | +$2.68 | -$5.36 | Agree: the evidence centers here |
| 8. Adjusted operating cost ratio in fiscal 2031, share of net revenue | 31.5% | 30% | 32.5% | +$7.51 | -$4.79 | Agree: the evidence centers here |
Effects as recorded by the independent challenge, in dollars per share against the earlier $352.00 reference. The fifth row's settings are points a year added to the yield terms. A cost of capital of 8.21% is the low setting and 9.76% the high one; the low setting adds value.
Disclosure
These schedules are Blockhaven calculations on stated assumptions and are not reported results. They start from fiscal 2026 results that agree with the company's annual report filed 11-05-2026 on net revenue, operating expenses, net income and earnings per share. This report is research, not personalized advice.
Important disclosures
Blockhaven research is provided for general informational and educational purposes. It is not individualized investment advice and does not take into account any reader's financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation or portfolio.
Nothing in this report is an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security or other financial instrument. Reading or accessing Blockhaven research does not by itself create an investment-advisory, fiduciary, brokerage or client relationship.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Scenario values, terminal values, valuation ranges, sensitivities and forward-looking assumptions are analytical tools, not guarantees or promises of future performance, and actual results may differ materially.
Blockhaven uses information from company filings, company publications, market-data providers and other sources it believes to be reliable, but that information may be incomplete, delayed, revised or incorrect.
Opinions, ratings and interpretations reflect Blockhaven's research judgment as of the report date and may change as new evidence becomes available.
Positions and conflicts
As of November 6, 2026, Blockhaven's owner held no shares, options, or other direct derivatives in Visa Inc.; had no material positions in Visa Inc. through entities the owner controls; and had no paid financial relationships with Visa Inc.
© 2026 Blockhaven LLC. All rights reserved.
Sources
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Visa Inc. (SEC filing)
Visa Inc. Annual Report on Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30(opens in a new tab)Accessed November 3, 2026
- 2.
Visa Inc. (SEC filing)
Visa Inc. Annual Report on Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2024-09-30(opens in a new tab)Accessed November 3, 2026
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Visa Inc. Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 (fiscal Q3 2026)(opens in a new tab)Accessed November 3, 2026
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Visa Inc. Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-03-31 (fiscal Q2 2026)(opens in a new tab)Accessed November 3, 2026
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Visa Inc. Form 8-K (Items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01), earnings announcement 2026-10-27(opens in a new tab)Accessed November 3, 2026
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Corrections and updates
No corrections or updates have been made to this piece.
Blockhaven research is published for information and education. It is not personalized investment advice.
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