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Technical Appendix · Companies, Equities

V Technical Appendix: The model's annual schedules

Supporting material for V Deep Dive: A great network, and a price that already assumes it stays one; it is not a separate research thesis.

The detailed schedules and method behind Blockhaven's V Deep Dive (3/5 BALANCED at the November 2, 2026 close of $425.51): the model, scenarios, equity bridge, discount rate and sensitivities, with evidence through November 7, 2026.

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Blockhaven Research
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The V research family (page counts are those of the approved PDF editions, which this site does not host):


The three conditional cases of the Visa model, year by year, in $ millions with fiscal years ending 09-30. Operating income is on the owner basis: the company's adjusted cost base plus a recurring uncovered legal cost.

Basis

Price basis $425.51 (11-02-2026 close). Cost of capital 9.06% (cost of equity 9.19%, debt weight of 2.71%). As-converted class A shares rolled to 11-02-2026: 1,863.7 million. FY2027 below is the full fiscal year; 8.77% of it (10-01-2026 to 11-01-2026) is treated as earned before the price session and added to cash.

The Blockhaven Rating of 3 of 5, BALANCED, and the argument for it are in the Deep Dive; this appendix shows the arithmetic. The schedules start from fiscal 2026 results for the year ended 09-30-2026, whose net revenue, operating expenses, net income and earnings per share agree with the annual report filed 11-05-2026, and use evidence gathered through 11-09-2026; the latest settled close is the only item added after 11-07-2026. The values are those of the valuation date, 11-02-2026; the dated comparison with the latest settled close follows. Dated events after the price date, beginning with the dividend record date of 11-10-2026, are discussed in the Deep Dive.

Since the valuation date

ItemValuation close, 11-02-2026Latest settled close, 11-09-2026
Price per share$425.51$422.16
Downside case ($237.26) against the close44.2% below43.8% below
Reference case ($365.04) against the close14.2% below13.5% below
Upside case ($462.33) against the close8.7% above9.5% above
Cost of capital at which the reference matches the close8.34%8.38%
Ten-year Treasury par yield4.91%4.86% (11-06-2026)

The case values are the values of the valuation date, 11-02-2026, in both columns; they are not rolled forward and the schedules that follow are unchanged. The model's risk-free rate is the 11-02-2026 yield. The latest settled close is the November 9, 2026 regular-session closing price, not a live quote; the Treasury table ends at 11-06-2026.

Reference scenario

From net revenue to operating income on the owner basis, year by year.

Fiscal yearNet revenueGrowth, %Adjusted operating costUncovered legal costOperating incomeMargin, %
FY202751,15911.516,62751234,02166.5
FY202856,51210.518,25356537,69366.7
FY202961,8119.419,77961841,41367.0
FY203067,0868.521,33367145,08267.2
FY203172,7148.422,90572749,08267.5

From after-tax operating income to free cash flow to the firm, for the same years.

Fiscal yearAfter-tax operating incomeDepreciation and amortizationCapital expenditureWorking-capital investmentFree cash flow to the firm
FY202727,7271,3301,8425327,163
FY202830,7201,5542,0345430,186
FY202933,7521,7932,2255333,266
FY203036,7422,0462,4155336,320
FY203140,0022,3272,6185639,655

Free cash flow earned before the price session 2,381; present value of the remaining free cash flow 131,615; terminal value 815,378 at terminal growth of 4.0%, present value 556,376 (80.9% of enterprise value); enterprise value 687,992; equity 680,324; $365.04 per share. Exit lens at 24 times fiscal 2031 earnings: $406.27 per share.

Downside scenario

From net revenue to operating income on the owner basis, year by year.

Fiscal yearNet revenueGrowth, %Adjusted operating costUncovered legal costOperating incomeMargin, %
FY202748,8306.416,11497731,73965.0
FY202851,4775.417,2456,03028,20354.8
FY202953,9304.818,3361,07934,51564.0
FY203056,1004.019,0741,12235,90464.0
FY203158,4424.219,8701,16937,40364.0

From after-tax operating income to free cash flow to the firm, for the same years.

Fiscal yearAfter-tax operating incomeDepreciation and amortizationCapital expenditureWorking-capital investmentFree cash flow to the firm
FY202725,5501,2701,8562924,935
FY202822,7031,4161,9562622,136
FY202927,7851,5642,0492527,275
FY203028,9031,7112,1322228,460
FY203130,1091,8702,2212329,735

Free cash flow earned before the price session 2,186; present value of the remaining free cash flow 105,059; terminal value 505,578 at terminal growth of 3.0%, present value 344,983 (76.7% of enterprise value); enterprise value 450,042; equity 442,180; $237.26 per share. Exit lens at 17 times fiscal 2031 earnings: $237.30 per share.

Upside scenario

From net revenue to operating income on the owner basis, year by year.

Fiscal yearNet revenueGrowth, %Adjusted operating costUncovered legal costOperating incomeMargin, %
FY202752,88315.216,92231735,64367.4
FY202859,83213.118,84735940,62667.9
FY202966,85411.720,72540145,72868.4
FY203073,98210.722,56544450,97468.9
FY203181,73410.524,52049056,72469.4

From after-tax operating income to free cash flow to the firm, for the same years.

Fiscal yearAfter-tax operating incomeDepreciation and amortizationCapital expenditureWorking-capital investmentFree cash flow to the firm
FY202729,2271,3751,8517028,681
FY202833,3131,6452,0946932,795
FY202937,4971,9392,3407037,026
FY203041,7982,2562,5897141,394
FY203146,5132,6152,8617846,191

Free cash flow earned before the price session 2,515; present value of the remaining free cash flow 146,543; terminal value 1,059,025 at terminal growth of 4.5%, present value 722,630 (83.1% of enterprise value); enterprise value 869,173; equity 861,639; $462.33 per share. Exit lens at 30 times fiscal 2031 earnings: $564.73 per share.

Drivers of the three cases

The assumptions behind the schedules above, year by year for fiscal 2027 to 2031 where a driver changes; the Deep Dive sets out the evidence for each in 'How the forecast works'.

Driver, fiscal 2027 to 2031DownsideReferenceUpside
Nominal payments volume growth, drives service revenue6.5, 5.5, 5.0, 4.5, 4.58.5, 8.0, 7.5, 7.0, 7.09.5, 9.0, 8.5, 8.0, 8.0
Service revenue yield change, points a year0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01.5, 1.5, 1.0, 1.0, 1.02.0, 2.0, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5
Processed transaction growth, drives data processing revenue7.0, 6.0, 5.0, 4.5, 4.09.0, 8.5, 8.0, 7.5, 7.010.0, 9.5, 9.0, 8.5, 8.0
Data processing yield change, points a year2.0, 1.0, 0.5, 0.0, 0.04.0, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 2.06.0, 4.0, 3.5, 3.0, 3.0
Cross-border volume growth, drives international revenue7.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.5, 5.010.0, 9.0, 8.5, 8.0, 7.512.0, 11.0, 10.0, 9.0, 9.0
International revenue yield change, points a year-2.0, -1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0-1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5
Other revenue growth10.0, 8.0, 6.0, 5.0, 5.020.0, 15.0, 12.0, 10.0, 10.030.0, 20.0, 15.0, 12.0, 12.0
Client incentives, % of gross revenue29.3, 29.8, 30.3, 30.8, 31.028.8, 29.0, 29.2, 29.4, 29.528.5, 28.5, 28.5, 28.5, 28.5
Adjusted operating cost, % of net revenue33.0, 33.5, 34.0, 34.0, 34.032.5, 32.3, 32.0, 31.8, 31.532.0, 31.5, 31.0, 30.5, 30.0
Recurring uncovered legal cost, % of net revenue2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.01.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.00.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6
Tax on operating income19.5, 19.5, 19.5, 19.5, 19.518.5, 18.5, 18.5, 18.5, 18.518.0, 18.0, 18.0, 18.0, 18.0
Depreciation, % of net revenue2.6, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.22.6, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.22.6, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.2
Capital expenditure, % of net revenue3.8, 3.8, 3.8, 3.8, 3.83.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.63.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5
Terminal growth3.0%4.0%4.5%
One-off legal charge in fiscal 2028 ($ millions)5,00000

Terminal economics, reference case

The last explicit year beside the first terminal year, which is what the capitalization formula assumes; the Deep Dive discusses it in 'Terminal economics'.

Reference caseFiscal 2031, last explicit yearFiscal 2032, first terminal year
Net revenue, $ billions72.775.6
Net revenue growth8.4%4.0%
After-tax operating income, $ billions40.041.6
Capital expenditure, $ billions2.62.7
Depreciation and amortization, $ billions2.32.4
Free cash flow to the firm, $ billions39.741.2
Free cash flow as a share of after-tax operating income99.1%99.1%
Depreciation as a share of capital expenditure88.9%88.9%
Reinvestment, share of after-tax operating income0.87%0.87%
Operating margin, owner basis67.5%67.5%

The reference case of our model, a conditional path and not a forecast. The first terminal year is the fiscal 2031 amounts grown at the terminal rate with fiscal 2031 ratios held, which is what the capitalization formula assumes. Our calculations.

Assumptions the independent challenge tested

Each assumption moved one at a time to the challenge's low and high settings; the Deep Dive discusses every row in 'Every assumption the independent challenge tested'.

AssumptionBaseLowHighPer-share effect, low settingPer-share effect, high settingDisposition
1. Cost of capital (WACC)9.06%8.21%9.76%+$73.06-$43.56Disagree, material: shown as a sensitivity
2. Terminal growth after fiscal 20314%3.5%4.5%-$26.91+$32.81Agree: the evidence centers here
3. Net revenue growth, fiscal 2032 to 2036, before terminal4%3%5.76%-$12.28+$23.67Disagree, material: shown as a sensitivity
4. Terminal reinvestment, share of fiscal 2031 after-tax operating income0.87%0%7.08%+$2.50-$17.88Agree: the evidence centers here
5. Service and data processing yield terms, points a year1.950.42.8-$16.86+$9.94Agree: the evidence centers here
6. Client incentive ratio in fiscal 2031, share of gross revenue29.5%28.52%30.46%+$4.62-$4.56Disagree, immaterial
7. Recurring uncovered legal cost, share of net revenue1%0.5%2%+$2.68-$5.36Agree: the evidence centers here
8. Adjusted operating cost ratio in fiscal 2031, share of net revenue31.5%30%32.5%+$7.51-$4.79Agree: the evidence centers here

Effects as recorded by the independent challenge, in dollars per share against the earlier $352.00 reference. The fifth row's settings are points a year added to the yield terms. A cost of capital of 8.21% is the low setting and 9.76% the high one; the low setting adds value.

Disclosure

These schedules are Blockhaven calculations on stated assumptions and are not reported results. They start from fiscal 2026 results that agree with the company's annual report filed 11-05-2026 on net revenue, operating expenses, net income and earnings per share. This report is research, not personalized advice.

Important disclosures

Blockhaven research is provided for general informational and educational purposes. It is not individualized investment advice and does not take into account any reader's financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation or portfolio.

Nothing in this report is an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell a security or other financial instrument. Reading or accessing Blockhaven research does not by itself create an investment-advisory, fiduciary, brokerage or client relationship.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Scenario values, terminal values, valuation ranges, sensitivities and forward-looking assumptions are analytical tools, not guarantees or promises of future performance, and actual results may differ materially.

Blockhaven uses information from company filings, company publications, market-data providers and other sources it believes to be reliable, but that information may be incomplete, delayed, revised or incorrect.

Opinions, ratings and interpretations reflect Blockhaven's research judgment as of the report date and may change as new evidence becomes available.

Positions and conflicts

As of November 6, 2026, Blockhaven's owner held no shares, options, or other direct derivatives in Visa Inc.; had no material positions in Visa Inc. through entities the owner controls; and had no paid financial relationships with Visa Inc.

© 2026 Blockhaven LLC. All rights reserved.

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    PayPal Holdings, Inc. (SEC filing)

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    U.S. Department of the Treasury (home.treasury.gov, Interest Rate Statistics)

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    U.S. Department of the Treasury (home.treasury.gov, Interest Rate Statistics)

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Corrections and updates

No corrections or updates have been made to this piece.

Blockhaven research is published for information and education. It is not personalized investment advice.

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