How Blockhaven Macro works.

Blockhaven Macro answers three questions each trading day: how willing markets are to take risk, whether financial conditions are adding or draining liquidity, and where crypto conditions stand. It then combines the first two into a single regime so the overall picture can be read at a glance.

It is a daily research read of conditions. It is not a forecast, a trading signal, or a recommendation.

Each score runs from 0 to 100 and is built from several named inputs. Every input is first placed on a common 0 to 100 scale relative to its own history, and the score is a weighted combination of those inputs.

If an input is unavailable or out of date, it is left out and the remaining inputs are re-weighted rather than filled in. The coverage figure shows how much of a score came from current inputs.

• Risk Appetite: equity trend, market breadth, volatility conditions, and credit tone.
• Liquidity: central-bank liquidity, the dollar's trend, real yields, and stablecoin supply.
• Crypto: bitcoin's trend, ether relative to bitcoin, trading-volume trend, and stablecoin flows.

Three further engines summarise specific kinds of conditions on the same 0 to 100 scale, using the same weighted-combination approach.

They describe conditions. They do not predict drawdowns, returns, or volatility, and a high reading is not a probability that something will happen.

• Market Stress: how fragile conditions look, from credit widening, volatility spikes, dollar and funding strain, trend breaks, and event risk.
• Upside Expansion: how much support there is for further upside, from risk-appetite thrust, liquidity impulse, credit tailwinds, falling volatility, and breadth.
• Vol Event Risk: how primed conditions are for a volatility event, from compressed volatility, tight ranges, scheduled event proximity, and cross-asset disagreement.

The regime combines Risk Appetite with Liquidity, because liquidity tends to confirm or undermine whatever risk assets are doing. When both scores sit clearly away from a neutral band, the regime is one of four named quadrants. When either score is inside that band, the regime is Transition.

• Risk-on · Expansion: risk appetite and liquidity are both supportive.
• Risk-on · Tightening: risk appetite is firm while liquidity is restrictive.
• Risk-off · Contraction: risk appetite and liquidity are both restrictive.
• Risk-off · Repair: risk appetite is weak while liquidity is supportive.
• Transition: the two scores are not jointly clear in either direction.

A change of regime is confirmed only after the new reading has persisted across several consecutive daily snapshots, so a single noisy day cannot flip the regime. Until then the page shows the new reading as not yet confirmed, beside the regime that still stands.

Persistence is counted in logged snapshots. Transition clarity (in Transition) and regime conviction (in a named quadrant) describe how firmly the scores sit relative to the quadrants. They are separate descriptive measures, not probabilities.

Blockhaven Macro is designed around one canonical research snapshot per U.S. trading day, taken around 6:00 PM Eastern Time after the close settles. It is a daily research product, not a quote terminal, and it is not updated minute by minute.

Crypto trades every day, so the Crypto score can change on weekends; a more frequent crypto refresh and an optional pre-open snapshot are possible later additions. Each snapshot shows its own date.

• Current: the snapshot is the latest one expected.
• Delayed: it is one daily snapshot behind.
• Out of date: it is two or more behind and may no longer reflect conditions.
• Unavailable: nothing is shown rather than a placeholder, and missing values are never shown as zero.
• Freshness counts weekdays. Until an exchange holiday calendar is applied, a market holiday can make a snapshot read as delayed a day early; it never makes old data read as current.

Inputs come from market data vendors and official public sources, including Federal Reserve data retrieved through FRED, ETF market data, and crypto market data.

Only Blockhaven's own derived outputs are published: the scores, the regime, and categorical states such as whether a checkpoint is met. Provider prices, index levels, spreads, and data series are not republished.

A snapshot is published only when every source that contributed to it is cleared for public display and the exact snapshot has been reviewed. Deriving a score from an input does not change the rights attached to that input. Source attribution is shown with each published snapshot.

Thresholds are currently uncalibrated. Historical validation and calibration are in progress, and Blockhaven does not publish hit rates or return claims for these scores.

• The same underlying input can feed several scores and engines, so agreement between them is not independent confirmation.
• Daily snapshots lag fast-moving markets.
• When inputs are unavailable, scores rest on fewer inputs; the coverage figure and data-quality label say so.
• Regime boundaries are fixed cut-offs, so readings just either side of a boundary can be classified differently.

Every snapshot carries the methodology version it was computed under. When the method changes, the version changes, and score history is shown only for snapshots computed under the same version.

Published snapshots are not silently edited. Corrections are published as dated revisions.

Condition scores, not probabilities. Specifically, they are not:

• probabilities or calibrated odds of any outcome;
• forecasts of returns, drawdowns, or volatility;
• buy or sell signals, target allocations, or position sizes;
• live prices or a real-time feed;
• investment advice.