NIKE Q1 FY2027: What Changed From Our Pre-Earnings View

Blockhaven lowers NKE to 2/5 Cautious from 3/5 Balanced at the October 8, 2026 close. The FY2028 values are conditional scenarios, not price targets.

Published on Substack October 9, 2026. Research dated October 9, 2026. NIKE evidence through October 3, 2026; market data through the October 8, 2026 close. This is a dated research record, not a live view.

In brief

NIKE's first fiscal quarter of 2027 matched guidance, but its full-year guidance did not: fiscal 2027 revenue is now guided down by a high single-digit rate, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.35 before about $0.15 of restructuring costs for a program called Pace. North American wholesale grew 9% while NIKE's own channel in the region fell 6%.

Rebuilding the model on the same horizon and multiples lowers the base-case FY2028 scenario value from $41.31 to $24.07, mainly because lower sales meet a cost base that does not shrink with them. Blockhaven moves the thesis to deteriorating, with confidence unchanged at moderate. The label describes the earnings path, not the performance business or the North American distribution repair, which both held up.

Read the full research

• Full article on Substack: https://blockhaven.substack.com/p/nike-q1-fy2027-what-changed-from (opens in a new tab)
• The Earnings Update (16 pages) and the Model and Thesis Addendum (10 pages) are attached to the Substack article.
• This update supplements the September 24 initiation, which remains unchanged as a dated record: https://blockhaven.substack.com/p/nike-distribution-repair-is-visible (opens in a new tab)

Sources

NIKE's first-quarter release and Form 10-Q for fiscal 2027, its Form 10-K for fiscal 2026, its October 1 note on the operating model, its 2026 proxy statement and a third-party transcript of the October 1 call. Market closes are regular-session closes agreed by two public sources. The Earnings Update lists each source with its address and retrieval date.

Disclosures

As of the date of this report, the author and the author's spouse own shares of NIKE, Inc. (NKE) and therefore have a financial interest in the subject company. Blockhaven LLC does not own securities of NIKE, Inc. The author has no options or other derivative exposure to NKE. Neither Blockhaven LLC nor the author has received compensation from NIKE, Inc. for this research. Neither has an advisory or consulting relationship with NIKE, Inc. Neither has a sponsorship or advertising relationship with NIKE, Inc. The author is not aware of any other material conflict of interest.

What a Blockhaven Rating means, and what it is not: Research disclosures.

The Blockhaven Rating and scenario values are Blockhaven's own research judgments, tied to the stated date and that day's closing price, and are not individualized recommendations. For informational and educational purposes only; not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.