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BLOCKHAVEN

Morning Intelligence·Monday, November 9, 2026

The VIX climbed to 25.6 at Friday's close

The VIX stood at 25.64 at Friday's close, above 20.

Data through
Market data as of
Published
By
Blockhaven Research
In this edition
  1. Opening read
  2. Overnight tape
  3. Movers that matter
  4. Earnings radar
  5. What we're watching
  6. Blockhaven Macro
  7. Risk and opportunity
  8. Market context
  9. Data note
  10. Sources

Opening read

The VIX stood at 25.64 at Friday's close, above the 20 level.

SPY is up 0.7% and QQQ up 0.7% at 8:15 AM ET. Blockhaven's Risk Appetite reading is down 10 points over 5 snapshots, to 43. The first test is whether Nvidia stays below Friday's $186.64 close once regular trading begins.

Overnight / pre-market tape

At 8:15 AM ET, SPY is up 0.7% and QQQ is up 0.7% versus the prior close. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 bp to 4.86% on Friday, the VIX closed Friday at 25.6, and Bitcoin trades at $74,656 (−1.5% over 24 hours).

Movers that matter

  1. NVDA−5.5% downpremarket

    No verified catalyst

    Nvidia

    Nvidia shares are down 5.5% premarket. No verified catalyst identified.[1]

    Nvidia is among the largest U.S. stocks by market value, so a move this size can shift the index proxies.

  2. GOOGL+2.9% uppremarket

    No verified catalyst

    Alphabet

    Alphabet shares are up 2.9% premarket. No verified catalyst identified.[1]

    1,159,230 shares had changed hands premarket by 8:15 AM ET.

  3. JPM+1.6% uppremarket

    Company filing

    JPMorgan Chase

    JPMorgan Chase shares are up 1.6% premarket. The company also disclosed a securities offering prospectus (Form 424B3) in an 8-K filed before the open; a link to the move is not established.[1][2]

    Link to the move not established

  4. NRG+5.3% uppremarket

    Earnings

    NRG Energy

    NRG Energy shares are up 5.3% premarket after the company reported quarterly results before the open (8-K Item 2.02).[1][2]

    GAAP operating income rose 161.8% year over year to $1.08 billion.

  5. MSTR−2.9% downpremarket

    Capital return

    Strategy

    Strategy shares are down 2.9% premarket. The company also disclosed a share repurchase update in an 8-K filed before the open; a link to the move is not established.[1][2]

    Link to the move not established

    Blockhaven's Crypto reading is 38, below neutral and easing; Bitcoin is down 1.5% over 24 hours.

Earnings radar

Overnight results

  • NRG Energy (NRG) reported before the open.[2]What changed
    • Operating margin expanded 603 basis points year over year to 11.5%.
    • The company also disclosed an acquisition or divestiture described in the earnings release.
    • Net income rose 269.1% against 161.8% growth in operating income, so items below the operating line (interest, taxes or other non-operating items) added to the change.
    Before the open
  • KKR (KKR) filed its quarterly results before the open (8-K Item 2.02). The release also includes an outlook.[2]Before the open
  • Constellation Energy (CEG) filed its quarterly results before the open (8-K Item 2.02).[2]Before the open
  • Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) reported before the open.[2]What changed
    • Shares are +3.5% premarket.
    • Revenue grew 9.5% year over year, accelerating from 4.6% in the prior quarter.
    • Ferguson Enterprises raised its outlook, according to the release.
    • The company also disclosed a restructuring action.
    • Net income fell 6.3% while operating income rose 4.9%, so the difference arose below the operating line, in interest, taxes or other non-operating items.
    Before the open
  • Roivant Sciences (ROIV) reported before the open.[2]What changed
    • Shares are +4.8% premarket.
    • Revenue returned to growth, rising 2135.6% year over year after a 33.5% decline in the prior quarter.
    • The GAAP operating loss narrowed to $268 million from $306 million a year earlier.
    Before the open

Coming today

  • Barrick Mining (B) is listed to report before the open.[3]Before the open
  • Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is listed to report after the close.[3]After the close
  • Skydance (SKYD) is listed to report after the close.[3]After the close
  • Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is listed to report after the close.[3]After the close
  • ORIX (IX) is listed to report before the open.[3]Before the open

Report timing comes from Nasdaq's public earnings calendar and is not company-confirmed; results are cited only when they appear in a company filing.

What we're watching at the open

  1. 1

    Whether Nvidia stays below Friday's $186.64 close

    Down 5.5% at 8:15 AM ET on 24,654,022 shares, with no verified catalyst.

  2. 2

    Whether Alphabet stays above Friday's $284.78 close

    Up 2.9% at 8:15 AM ET on 1,159,230 shares, with no verified catalyst.

  3. 3

    Whether SPY holds above Friday's $735.29 close

    SPY is up 0.7% at 8:15 AM ET. Holding above the prior close through the session would confirm the premarket direction.

  4. 4

    Barrick Mining and ORIX are listed to report before the open

    No results had been filed with the SEC by 8:15 AM ET; a report before 9:30 is part of the opening price. Timing is from a public earnings calendar, not the companies.

Blockhaven Macro

Regime read: Transition

Blockhaven's read, computed Sunday, Nov 8, 7:20 PM ET, is Transition. Risk Appetite 43 (inside its neutral band, down 10 over 5 snapshots); Liquidity 34 (below its neutral band, up 2 over 5 snapshots); Crypto 38 (below its neutral band, down 16 over 5 snapshots). Its Market Stress engine is elevated.

Risk Appetite sits inside its neutral band after falling 10 points over 5 snapshots, so the read does not lean either way on risk; Liquidity, below its band, is the one reading clearly off neutral. The regime read, Risk Appetite, Crypto and the three engines (Market Stress, Upside Expansion and Vol Event Risk) are only partly verified against public data, so treat them as provisional.

Macro read computed .

Risk and opportunity

Risk

VIX spike

Blockhaven's Macro read names VIX spike as its main risk. The VIX stood at 25.64 at Friday's close, above 20.

Market context

Each figure carries its own date and time, and they were not observed simultaneously. Treasury yields are prior-day closes and Bitcoin is a rolling 24-hour reading.

Market figures, each with its own date
FigureReadingDated
SPY, pre-market[1]$740.60, +0.7%
QQQ, pre-market[1]$660.81, +0.7%
10-year Treasury yield[4]4.86%, +2 bp
VIX[5]25.6
Bitcoin[6]$74,656, −1.5%

Data note

Data through 8:15 AM ET. Nasdaq public market data for quotes and SEC EDGAR for company filings. Blockhaven's Macro read was computed Sunday, Nov 8, 7:20 PM ET.

This edition was compiled and published automatically from public sources under Blockhaven's standing editorial policy. An editor did not review it individually before release.

Condition scores, not probabilities. Thresholds are currently uncalibrated. Historical validation and calibration are in progress, and no hit rates or return claims are published. Macro methodology

Source checks completed .

Sources

  1. 1.

    Nasdaq

    Nasdaq market activity(opens in a new tab)

    Accessed November 9, 2026

  2. 2.

    U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

    SEC EDGAR company filings(opens in a new tab)

    Accessed November 9, 2026

  3. 3.

    Nasdaq

    Nasdaq earnings calendar(opens in a new tab)

    Accessed November 9, 2026

  4. 4.

    U.S. Department of the Treasury

    Daily Treasury interest rate statistics(opens in a new tab)

    Accessed November 9, 2026

  5. 5.

    Cboe Global Markets

    Cboe market data(opens in a new tab)

    Accessed November 9, 2026

  6. 6.

    Coinbase

    Coinbase markets(opens in a new tab)

    Accessed November 9, 2026

  7. 7.

    Blockhaven

    Blockhaven Macro snapshot (public projection)

    Accessed November 9, 2026 · Snapshot dated 2026-11-08, methodology 2026.07.23-netliq-weekly.

Corrections and updates

No corrections or updates have been made to this piece.

Blockhaven research is published for information and education. It is not personalized investment advice.