Morning Intelligence·Friday, October 23, 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 bp on Thursday, to 4.96%
The 10-year yield fell 17 bp to 4.96% on Thursday; this morning SPY is down 0.3% and QQQ down 0.1%.
- Data through
- Market data as of
- Published
- By
- Blockhaven Research
In this edition
Opening read
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 bp to 4.96% on Thursday, and the 2-year fell 16 bp to 4.65%.
Blockhaven's Liquidity reading, 31, is below its neutral band. SPY is down 0.3% and QQQ down 0.1% at 8:15 AM ET. The first test for rates is today's official Treasury close against 4.96%.
Overnight / pre-market tape
At 8:15 AM ET, SPY is down 0.3% and QQQ is down 0.1% versus the prior close. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 bp to 4.96% on Thursday, the VIX closed Thursday at 19.0, and Bitcoin trades at $81,402 (−0.3% over 24 hours).
Movers that matter
Earnings radar
Overnight results
- American Express (AXP) reported before the open. Revenue of $20.1 billion, per the company's release. The release also includes an outlook.[3]Before the open
- Western Digital (WDC) reported after Thursday's close.[3]What changed
- Shares are −2.9% premarket.
- Revenue grew 55.5% year over year, accelerating from 43.8% in the prior quarter.
- Gross margin expanded 1430 basis points year over year to 57.8%.
- GAAP operating income rose 158.3% year over year to $2.05 billion.
- Management provided fiscal Q2 2027 adjusted EPS guidance (non-GAAP) of about $5.80.
- Newmont (NEM) reported after Thursday's close.[3]What changed
- Shares are −0.9% premarket.
- Revenue grew 15.2% year over year, little changed from 15.1% in the prior quarter.
- GAAP net income rose 35.1% year over year to $2.48 billion ($2.35 per diluted share versus $1.67).
- SLB (SLB) reported before the open. Revenue of $9.45 billion, per the company's release.[3]Before the open
Coming today
- ENI S.p.A. (E) is listed to report before the open.[2]Before the open
- Infosys (INFY) is listed to report before the open.[2]Before the open
- First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) is listed to report before the open.[2]Before the open
- Rogers Communication (RCI) is listed to report before the open.[2]Before the open
Report timing comes from Nasdaq's public earnings calendar and is not company-confirmed; results are cited only when they appear in a company filing.
What we're watching at the open
- 1
The 10-year yield after Thursday's 17 bp drop
It closed at 4.96%. Treasury publishes one official reading a day, so the next one is today's close.
- 2
Whether Infosys stays below Thursday's $13.22 close
Down 7.4% at 8:15 AM ET on 2,132,757 shares, with a filing that does not establish the link.
- 3
ENI S.p.A. and Infosys are listed to report before the open
No results had been filed with the SEC by 8:15 AM ET; a report before 9:30 is part of the opening price. Timing is from a public earnings calendar, not the companies.
Blockhaven Macro
Regime read: Transition
Blockhaven's read, computed Thursday, Oct 22, 8:20 PM ET, is Transition. Risk Appetite 56 (inside its neutral band, up 4 over 5 snapshots); Liquidity 31 (below its neutral band, down 1 over 5 snapshots); Crypto 44 (inside its neutral band, up 2 over 5 snapshots). Its Market Stress and Vol Event Risk engines are elevated.
Risk Appetite sits inside its neutral band, so the read does not lean either way on risk; Liquidity, below its band, is the one reading clearly off neutral. The regime read, Risk Appetite, Liquidity, Crypto and the three engines (Market Stress, Upside Expansion and Vol Event Risk) are only partly verified against public data, so treat them as provisional.
Macro read computed .
Risk and opportunity
Risk
Rates volatility
Blockhaven's Macro read names rates volatility as its main risk. The 10-year yield moved 17 bp on Thursday, to 4.96%, a move of the size this describes.
Market context
Each figure carries its own date and time, and they were not observed simultaneously. Treasury yields are prior-day closes and Bitcoin is a rolling 24-hour reading.
Data note
Data through 8:15 AM ET. Nasdaq public market data for quotes and SEC EDGAR for company filings. Blockhaven's Macro read was computed Thursday, Oct 22, 8:20 PM ET.
This edition was compiled and published automatically from public sources under Blockhaven's standing editorial policy. An editor did not review it individually before release.
Condition scores, not probabilities. Thresholds are currently uncalibrated. Historical validation and calibration are in progress, and no hit rates or return claims are published. Macro methodology
Source checks completed .
Sources
- 1.
- 2.
- 3.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
SEC EDGAR company filings(opens in a new tab)Accessed October 23, 2026
- 4.
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Daily Treasury interest rate statistics(opens in a new tab)Accessed October 23, 2026
- 5.
- 6.
- 7.
Blockhaven
Blockhaven Macro snapshot (public projection)Accessed October 23, 2026 · Snapshot dated 2026-10-22, methodology 2026.07.23-netliq-weekly.
Corrections and updates
No corrections or updates have been made to this piece.
Blockhaven research is published for information and education. It is not personalized investment advice.